Global polyethylene (PE) capacity across all three grades may have to be as much as 23m tonnes/year lower than the ICIS base case between 2023 and 2030 to return operating rates to healthy historic average.
This assumes annual average demand growth in China of 1.2% per year versus our base case of 3.3% in this forecast period (actual 200-2022 growth was 8.7%).
I’ve lowered demand growth in the Developed World from 1.5% per year in 2023-2030 (higher than the 0.5% in 2000-2022) because of sustainability.
But under this outcome, China would account for 47m tonnes of lost demand versus our base case compared with 20m tonnes for the Developing World.
In other words, even if the fall in rich-world demand because of sustainability is less severe than I expect, the impact of lower China growth would still mean lots of project postponements, cancellations and/or shutdowns of existing plants.
Published by: www.icis.com
John Richardson
25-Aug-2023
